How often will you get your bike stolen in Vancouver BC?

Vancouver leads the pack for bike commutes - Vancouver Sun
"Residents made 131,000 total cycling trips each day in 2015, according to the city’s survey."

Vancouver Police
"over 2000 bicyles are stolen in Vancouver every year."

With typical VPD efficiency (they can't even spell bicycle), we are informed that the number of bicycle thefts in Vancouver every year is greater than 2000, but less than infinity. So let's guess. They probably mean "reported stolen". Let's say that 20% of bicycle thefts are reported, and 10,000 bicycles are stolen every year. This makes the math easier anyway.

So. If each cyclist averages 1 trip every other day, there are 65500 cyclists. Let's say another 65500 people who never use their bikes.
So with 10,000 thefts per year, your bike gets stolen once every 13.1 years.

So theft costs you $7.60 a year on a $100 bicycle, $76 on A $1000 Bicycle. More expensive bikes are less likely to be stolen. However, the bikes that get stolen include bikes left unlocked, or locked with cable lock. Cable cutters cost $8.50 at Home Depot, and will go through a 1/4" cable in 1 snip. With a proper U-lock, your odds are much better.
Furthermore, some bicycles will be stolen from the home or from storage, rather than on a cycling trip. If you have a cheaper bike, and better security than average, you might go 30 years between thefts.

I don't include the theft of wheels, seats and accessories in the calculations. Obviously there are major assumption in the calculations.

One of my coworkers was killed cycling, which isn't statistically valid, but be careful out there!

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